UBI - Page 10

UBI Research estimates that the flexible OLED market will generate $1.8 billion in revenues in 2015, and will grow quickly at a 60% annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $17.6 billion by 2020. The primary application driving this grwoth will be tablet pcs.

UBI also says that Samsung decided to change the encapsulation technology used in their upcoming A3 production line. In their current flexible OLED production, Samsung uses the old Vitex technology which is slow and expensive.

UBI Research estimates that the OLED lighting market will take off in 2015, and will grow to reach $4.7 billion in revenue by 2020. According to UBI within three years a 100x100 mm OLED lighting panel will cost under $5 to produce. This is assuming a large substrate (1270x1270 mm), a fast production process and a tandem structure.

In such a scenario, the largest cost (over 80%) will be for the OLED materials. This means that at that stage companies will put most of their focus on lowering the material usage and cheaper OLED materials.

UBI Research says that while the AMOLED market is slated for a modest growth in 2014 (revenues of $10 billion, up from $8.9 billion in 2013), fast growth will resume from 2016 onwards. UBI sees a CAGR growth of 32% from 2016, till revenues reach $46.5 billion in 2020.

UBI says that 2014's revenue growth will be only 10% because both Samsung Display and LG Display delayed OLED investments. Samsung is already constructing its A3 flexible OLED line, and LG Display is also expected to start placing orders for flexible OLED production equipment for their upcoming Gen-6 fab. UBI also expects LGD to start constructing a new OLED TV fab, the M3 line (in addition to the M2 fab which is very close to mass production). So the market is expected to recover its growth in mid 2015.

Since they launched the world's first OLED TV in August 2013, LG managed to slash the price from $14,999 to about $4,000 (currently the EA9800 costs $4,299 in Amazon.com). We all hope LG will continue to lower the price, obviously, so it's good to hear that LGD's Byeonggyu Roh says that they will continue to reduce the cost of their OLED TV panel production.

According to UBI Research, LGD ultimate goal is to reach a price premium of only 10% over LCDs. LG needs to lower the costs across the board - taking advantage of existing LCD lines and equipment, optimizing the thickness of all th display layers (TFT, organic materials and encapsulation), improving the production process times and more.

According to UBI Research, the AMOLED market reach $2.3 billion in Q1 2014, up 42% from Q4 2013 (which was a soft quarter, 36% lower than Q3 2013). Samsung Display is still of course the major AMOLED producer.

LGD's market share was only 2% - producing flexible OLEDs and 55" OLED TV panels. But UBI expects LGD's market share to expand gradually. UBI says that LGD sold 50% more OLED TVs in the quarter compared to Q4 2013 (this is by revenue, which means that shipments almost doubled as the price keeps dropping). UBI expects LGD's OLED TV sales to grow by more than 60% in Q2 2014 as Chinese TV start marketing TVs with LGD's OLED panels, and LG Electronics expand OLED TV sales to more countries.

UBI Research says that the OLED market will actually decrease by 24% in 2014: from $8.8 billion in 2013 to $6.7 billion in 2014. But in 2015 the market will resume its fast growth and in 2017 the market will reach over $27 billion (up 61% from 2016). UBI also sees the market reaching over $75 billion in 2020.

UBI sees most of the growth coming from high-priced flexible OLEDs and of course OLED TVs (UBI sees 2017 as the year when the OLED TV market finally emerges). The negative growth in 2014 will be due to the general slowdown in the smartphone market.

Market report company UBI Research says that the flexible OLED market is set to grow quickly - in fact shipments in 2018 will reach 200 million panels, up over 2600% from 2014 (7.5 million panels).

In terms of revenue, the market will grow from $714 million in 2014 to almost $15 billion by 2018. UBI is much more optimistic than IHS which forecasts that the flexible OLED market will reach only $100 million in 2014. Both companies agree though that growth will be fast, and IHS sees the market reaching $4 billion in 2018 and $12 billion by 2020.

UBI Research published a new report on Flexible OLED displays, forecasting a very fast growth: from 20 million units in 2012 to 150 million units in 2013. UBI sees $6.3 billion in flexible OLED revenues in 2017. This is far more optimistic than the recent report by Markets&Markets who see the entire flexible display market at $3.2 billion in 2017.

Samsung has plans to release their first plastic-based flexible OLEDs in 2012 (although this may be delayed into 2013). LG Display hopes to start flexible OLED production towards the end of 2013. Personally I do not think both companies will have capacity enough to produce 130 million flexible panels in 2013.

Market report company UBI Research says that OLED shipments in 2011 reached 130 million units. AMOLED shipments were 89.3 million (up 109% from 2010) and PMOLED shipments reached 41.1 million units. The company forecasts that the AMOLED market will grow by 70% in 2012 to reach 155 million units.

In terms of revenues, AMOLEDs in 2011 generated $2.8 billion (up 108% over 2010). In 2012 AMOLED revenues will reach $4.4 billion (60% growth). Total OLED (PMOLED+AMOLED) shipments in 2012 will pass 200 million units. The market will continue its fast growth and will reach 500 million units in 2015 (25% of the total mobile display market).