UBI estimates that the AMOLED market will reach a record $15 billion in revenues in 2016 - an increase of about 40% over 2015. Unit shipments will rise 16% to reach 270 million panels in 2016 (up from 230 million in 2015).
UBI expects the AMOLED market to grow with a CAGR of 46% between 2016 and 2020, to reach $67 billion.
During the OLED World Summit, an analyst from UBI gave an interesting presentation, showing the company's view of the current status of the OLED TV industry, and their OLED market forecasts for upcoming years.
So first of all, we have LG and Samsung. LGD has obviously been successful in launching WOLED OLED TVs, and scaling up to mass production has been achieved. LG is also hopeful that solution processing will enable them to produce RGB-structured OLEDs efficiently. LG is collaborating with Merck and Espon on printing technologies.
Update: originally we posted that the market for solution-based OLEDs will be $395 million in 2020, but the correct UBI is estimate is much higher - $2.4 billion
UBI Research estimates that solution based OLED processes could reduce the price of a 55" OLED TV panel by as much as 43" compared to the currently used WRGB evaporation based process.
UBI further says that solution-based OLEDs will be cheaper to produce than LCD panels. The company estimates that companies will start mass producing solution-based OLED TVs in 2018, and the market of solution-based panels will reach $2.4 billion by 2020.
UBI research says that Q2 2015 was a record quarter for the AMOLED market, with 56 million AMOLEDs shipped - an increase of 35% over the previous quarter (41 million panels) and 19% over Q2 2014 (47 million panels).
In terms of revenue, those 56 million panels generated $2.8 billion in revenue. The largest producer is still Samsung of course, and the main reason for the higher volume is the shipment of AMOLEDs to Chinese mobile phone markets. LG Display's flexible AMOLED used in Apple's Watch also contributed to the record quarter.
UBI research that the OLED material market reached $564 million in H1 2015. This is a 14% increase from H2 2014, but a 24% decrease from the first half of 2014.
The main reason for this, according to UBI, is that OLED production is stagnating and price of material is decreasing rapidly. The main reason for the production stagnation is Samsung Display's low utilization (which was about 50% in H1 2015) and LG's low OLED TV production volume (around 100,000 units).
A couple of weeks ago, UBI Research said that OLED lighting panel shipments will grow quickly in coming years - from around $100 million in 2016 to over $2.7 billion in 2020. By 2025, OLED lighting will grab about 10% of the total lighting market.
Today UBI released some more forecasts, this time about the interior lighting market. According to UBI, starting in 2020, OLED lighting will become competitive with LED lighting, and will gain market share. By 2025, OLED will become the dominant interior lighting technology, generating $5.7 billion in revenue. Flexible OLED lighting will take up about 27% of the total OLED interior lighting market.
UBI Research says that while LEDs are currently the most prominent next-gen lighting devices, OLED panel shipments will grow quickly in coming years, and they see the market growing from around $100 million in 2016 to over $2.7 billion in 2020. By 2025, OLED lighting will grab about 10% of the total lighting market.
UBI says that by increasing production capacity and using a Gen-5 fab (they actually say 1270x1270 mm substrates) a 100x100 mm OLED panel can be produced for $5 or lower. In about 10 years, this will drop to $2.5 per panel - which is in line with current costs of incandescent and fluorescent lights ($1 to $3). It is actually cheaper than current LED prices (which are around $10 for a comparable device). Of course LED prices will also drop in 10 years, but UBI still sees the market expanding very quickly.
UBI Research sees fast growth ahead for white-OLED displays (WRGB) in the next five years. Currently WRGB is only used in OLED TV panels (made by LG Display) and all OLED microdisplays, but UBI says the technology will be adopted in small and medium sized panels as well.
UBI sees over 150 million WRGB OLEDs produced in 2020, out of over a billion OLED displays in total - so WRGB displays will account for 15% of the OLED market. Not all of these will be large OLED TV panels of course. In terms of revenue, WRGB OLEDs will generate over $13 billion in 2020 - most of which will come from large-sized OLED panels.
UBI Research estimates that the OLED emitting material market will grow to $560 million USD in 2015, a 16% growth from 2014. UBI says that the market will grow by 35% CAGR in coming years, to reach $2.5 billion in 2020.
Korea currently buys over 90% of OLED materials, but China's new players are starting to produce AMOLED displays and China will gain a market share of over 20%.
UBI Research forecasts that the OLED lighting market will reach 82 million in 2015, and grow fast till 2020 - when it will reach $4.7 billion. As prices are expected to drop quickly when capacities expand, this means UBI sees very large OLED lighting panel shipments starting in 2016.
UBI is by far the most optimistic about OLED lighting from all market research we've seen. IDTechEx for example see a $200 million panel market in 2019 that will grow to $1.9 billion in 2025. Cintelliq sees OLED competing with LEDs in 2016, and 500 million 100x100 mm OLED lighting panels produced in 2023.
