UBI - Page 6

UBI Research says that foldable OLED display production will begin in 2019, and will quickly grow to over 28 million units shipped in 2022. The growth will be fast - but in total UBI sees the market remaining relatively small even at 2022, with most OLEDs on the marketing to remain flexible but not foldable.

UBI says that if OLED makers will be able to launch and commercialize foldable OLEDs, it could seriously disrupt the tablet PC market. The company expects the first foldable phone to use dual 5.2" displays (7.2" display when open) on the inside, with an additional small "bar-type" display when closed.

In 2016 it was reported that Mercedes signed an agreement with LG Display to supply its 12.3" FHD flexible P-OLED displays for a future E-Class automobile. A couple of months ago this was confirmed in a new report from Korea, that also said that Mercedes plans to launch cars with LGD's OLEDs in 2022.

A new report from Korea, now says that Mercedes-Benz is planning to adopt LGD's flexible OLED displays starting with some of the Mercedes E Class models it will release in H1 2020. Following that, Mercedes plans to use LGD's P-OLEDs in several cars - both in dashboards and in rear-seat monitors. The Mercedes will use LGD's OLEDs in the form of a wide screen, combining the dashboard and the central infotainment display.

UBI Research estimates that AMOLED shipments reached 440 million units in 2017 (up 13.6% from 2016), with revenues reaching $27.1 billion (up 62.3% from 2016). Only yesterday did DSCC release its own estimates of $23.2 billion in revenues for the AMOLED market in 2017.

The AMOLED market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.5% to reach almost a billion units in 2022. Revenues will grow faster at 22% and reach $80.5 billion in 2022.

UBI Research estimates that the global AMOLED production capacity will grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2018 to 2020. Overall production size will grow from 13 million square meters in 2017 to 40 million square meters in 2020.

Small and medium-sized displays will continue to lead the AMOLED market, with 32 million square meters in 2020 (compared to 8.4 million in 2020). Samsung Display will continue to dominate but its market share will drop to around 45% in 2020 (down from around 90% in 2017).

UBI Research estimates that in 2019 Flexible OLED shipments will reach 480 million units, overtaking rigid OLED shipments (409 million in 2019) for the first time. In a somewhat confusing PR, UBI seem to suggest that flexible OLED shipments will grow at a CAGR of 41% to reach 1.285 billion units (and $59.4 billion in revenues) in 2022.

UBI also provides information on two specific market segments. Full-screen flexible OLED shipments will reach 265 million units in 2018 (a market-share of 82.1% of all flexible OLEDs). Full-screen OLED domination will continue in the future and in 2022 over a billion such displays will ship (market share of 79.5%).

UBI Research is tracking the price of premium TV sold on Amazon.com in the US. As competition intensifies, the price gap between OLED and LCD TVs keeps getting lower - to the point where is not much difference between a high end Samsung QLED TV and LG's OLEDC7 OLED TVs.

In December 2016, the price gap between a 65" LG OLED TV to a 65" Samsung SUHD TV was about $1,000. The price gap as of today is only about $300. The price gap for a 55" TV is even lower (around $200).

UBI Research says that LG Display will start mass producing OLED lighting panels at its 5-Gen fab by the end of September 2017, which will the growth period of the OLED lighting market.

According to UBI, the market will reach panel sales of $1.9 billion by 2021, and continue its fast growth to reach $5.8 billion by 2025. That's a CAGR of 85% from 2017 to 2025!

UBI Research estimates smartphone OLED display shipments reached 95.3 million units in Q2 2017, up 2.6% from last year (92.9 million Q2 2016) while TV panel shipments grew 165% to reach 370,000 units.

Compared to last quarter (Q1 2017), smartphone shipments grew 0.6%. Samsung Display is still the clear market leader - with a market share of 96.7%. OLED TV panel shipments increased 21.2% from Q1 2017, and UBI expects this market to continue growing gradually throughout 2017.

UBI Research says that as OLED makers are diverting all efforts into flexible OLED production, thin film encapsulation (TFE) is gaining in popularity. Between 2017 and 2021, TFE will be applied to about 70% of all OLED panels in production. The OLED encapsulation equipment market will generate $11 billion in sales.

TFE encapsulation started out as a complex technology that required 11 layers and was slow and expensive. Recent advances allowed OLED makers to reduce the number of layers to just 3 and increase productivity and yields and so lower the production costs. Some film OLED makers opted for hybrid encapsulation (which uses a barrier film) but TFE seems to have become the technology of choice.

UBI Research estimates that the AR and VR market will grow to 96.4 million units and $58.7 billion in device sales by 2021. In 2017, 17 million units will ship generating $3.9 billion in revenues. From 2017 to 2021 the market will grow with a CARG of 54%.

According to UBI, the VR and AR market was split almost 50% between OLED and other technology displays, with 2.6 million OLEDs shipped in 2017. Most next generation VR headsets will use OLED displays, however, and by 2021 OLEDs will occupy 80% of the market.