UBI Research lowered its forecast for the OLED industry in 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic. UBI decreased its total market revenue forecast by 4.8% to $36.7 billion.
UBI now estimates that 612 million OLED panels will ship in 2020, down from its previous estimate of 660 million. The OLED TV market forecast was reduced dramatically from 4.9 million panels to 3.6 million.
UBI Research posted an interesting note. The company says that rigid OLED shipments (237 million) command a 79.2% market share of the entire OLED smartphone market, up from 64.5% in 2018.
Display makers have mostly invested in flexible OLED production - but currently there is higher demand for the lower cost rigid OLEDs. All rigid OLED lines are currently in full capacity and UBI suggests that we may see some companies converting flexible OLED lines to rigid OLED production - or that we'll see new investments in rigid OLED production.
UBI Research says that the size of smartphone OLED panels is slowly increasing - in 2017, 52.5% of the OLED panels were 5.5-5.99 inch in size, and in 2019 this decreased to 49.6%.
Looking back at 2017, 78.5% of all OLED smartphones were larger than 5.5-inch, and this has grown to 91.9% in 2019. Consumers are preferring larger and larger smartphone displays...
UBI Research estimates that OLED production capacity will increase from 34.9 million sqm to 68.5 million by 2023. LG Display and Samsung Display are expected to increase production of OLED TV and introduce new 10.5-Gen fabs better suited for 65" TV production.
Mobile OLED production capacity will also grow, but at a slower rate - from 13 million sqm in 2019 to 19.3 million sqm in 2023, mainly driven by Chinese OLED producers that produce flexible smartphone OLED displays mainly for the Chinese domestic market. Korean OLED producers (SDC and LGD) will continue to dominate the market and will retain their ~80% market share in 2023.
UBI Research says that 110 million AMOLED panels were produced and shipped in Q1 2019, a slight decrease of 0.4% from Q1 2018.
The top AMOLED producer is still of course Samsung Display, which produced 82 million units (75% market share). SDC's revenues were $5.09 billion, down from $5.86 billion in Q1 2018.
UBI Research estimates that the OLED material market will grow to $1.17 billion in 2019, and to $1.87 billion in 2021. The market is expected to reach $2 billion in revenues in 2023.
Interestingly, UBI says that in 2029 70% of the materials will be consumed by Korean companies (LGD and SDC) - and Korea's market share will grow to 75.6% in 2023. This will be driven be soaring consumption of materials for TV production (OLED TV materials will take up 49.7% of the total market in 2023 up from only 21.1% in 2019).
UBI Research estimates that the OLED market will reach $32.2 billion in revenues, up from 13.8% from 2018. UBI says the the growth will come from new applications - including foldable smartphone displays, 8K OLED TVs and rollable OLED TVs. Increased yields by Chinese AMOLED makers will also contribute to the growth.
AMOLED revenues in Q4 2018 reached $7.9 billion (down 3.7% from Q3 2018 and 10.4% from Q4 2017). In the whole of 2018, revenues reached $28.3 billion, up 7.1% from 2017 ($26.4 billion). UBI sees the oversupply in the flexible OLED market to continue as high prices prevent adoption in mid-end smartphones.
OLED Korea is an international OLED-focused event, organized by UBI Research, and the OLED-Info team will attend next year's event, which will take place in Seoul, Korea in March 6-7, 2019.
UBI announced the final speaker list for the event, and it seems as if OLED Korea 2019 has a great lineup. We'll be happy to schedule meetings - so if you plan to attend OLED Korea 2019, do contact us!
UBI Research estimates that demand for OLED smartphone displays is now on a gradual increase, and by the end of the year it will return to the levels of the end of 2017, fueled by new Apple OLED phones and SDC's intention to decrease its rigid OLED prices to better compete with LCD displays.
Looking further ahead, UBI sees the OLED smartphone market growing from 430 million unit in 2018 to 900 million units in 2022. Foldable OLED shipments will grow from 1 million units in 2019 to 18 million units in 2022 - that's much lower than UBI's forecasts published only two months ago - when it estimated 28 million foldable OLED panel shipments in 2022.
UBI Research says that Samsung Display's OLED shipments dropped 26% in Q1 2018 (compared to Q4 2017) to reach 88 million units (that's 4.7% lower than Q1 2017), generating $5.37 billion in revenues (down 32.4% from last quarter and 30.4% from last year). Revenues and shipments are expected to recover, though, in Q2 2018.
UBI says that Samsung Display will hold a market share of 93.4% of the total OLED market in 2018.
